Retirement Savings

Will You Actually Get to Retire?

The 15% rule costs $1,125/month at $90K. In some cities that's easy. In others it's mathematically impossible. Here's your real number.

Data: 2026-Q2 · BLS · HUD · KFF
Income Band
/100
Retirement Readiness Score
Monthly Capacity
achievable contribution after local costs
Annual Total
per year toward retirement
In 10 Years at 7%
what a decade of this builds
State Income Tax
every point of state tax slows compounding
Loading city data… Showing · income band · 15% rule: Fidelity 2025 · AZ 2.5% flat tax, Social Security untaxed
"Retirement isn't an age. It's a number — and where you live decides how fast you reach it."
The Number Nobody Tells You Early Enough
$533,000

That's what waiting from 25 to 35 costs on the exact same $300/month. Not because you saved less — you only skipped $36,000 of contributions. Compounding did the other $497,000.

Start at 25 $1,100,000 by 65
40 years of compounding does 73% of the work for you
Start at 35 $567,000 by 65
10 years late costs you $533,000 — half the balance
Start at 45 $260,000 by 65
now your contributions ARE most of the balance
Start at 55 $104,000 by 65
compounding barely gets started — catch-up limits become critical

$300/month, 7% average annual growth, monthly compounding to age 65. Historical S&P 500 average: ~10% nominal, ~7% inflation-adjusted.

What Savings Rate Is Realistic in Phoenix?

At the $80–100K band ($5,667/mo est. take-home, $1,583 avg 1BR rent). The 15% rule uses gross income — $1,125/month at $90K.

5% + Match
$375/mo
retire ~72 · relies on Social Security
Not Enough
Better than nothing, but Social Security replaces only ~40% of pre-retirement income.
10%
$750/mo
retire ~68 · tight but workable
Possible
Reaches ~$790K by 65 starting at 30. Doable in Phoenix with controlled housing costs.
15% (the rule) ⭐
$1,125/mo
retire ~65 · the standard target
Most Realistic
Phoenix data says $1,134/mo is achievable at this band — one of only ~11 metros where the full 15% fits.
20%+ (FIRE-ish)
$1,500+/mo
retire ~58 · aggressive
Challenging
Requires roommate-level housing or dual income. Possible here; impossible in coastal metros.

The Phoenix Retirement Math, Line by Line

Where the 15% actually comes from at the $80–100K band — and why the same exercise fails in San Francisco.

Est. monthly take-home ($90K, single filer) $5,667
1BR rent (HUD FY2026 FMR, Phoenix) −$1,583
Car all-in (Phoenix avg) −$980
Food, utilities, healthcare, everything else −$1,970
LEFT FOR RETIREMENT — covers the full 15% rule $1,134/mo

At your selected city and income band, your estimated retirement capacity is — switch city or income above and this updates. In San Francisco at the same band it drops to $792/mo — rent eats the difference.

Are You on Track? The Age Milestones

Fidelity's salary-multiple checkpoints — the industry-standard yardstick. At $90K income:

By 30
1×
salary saved
$90K
By 40
3×
salary saved
$270K
By 50
6×
salary saved
$540K
By 60
8×
salary saved
$720K
By 67
10×
salary saved
$900K
Behind? You're normal. The median retirement balance for Americans 45–54 is ~$115K — far below the 6× line. The milestones aren't a judgment; they're a flashlight. The fix is the same at every age: capture the match, automate the raise, move the housing number.

Where Each Dollar Goes First

The account priority ladder — the order that maximizes free money and tax advantage. Follow it top to bottom until your monthly capacity runs out.

1
401(k) up to the full employer match
Avg match: 4.7% of salary — $4,230/yr free at $90K
100% instant return
2
High-interest debt (over ~7% APR)
A 22% APR card outgrows any market return — kill it first
Guaranteed return
3
Roth IRA to the $7,000 limit
$583/mo · tax-free growth forever · income phase-out starts $150K single
Tax-free growth
4
401(k) beyond the match
Up to $23,500 (2025) · lowers this year's taxable income
Pre-tax shelter
5
HSA if you have a high-deductible plan
The only triple-tax-free account in the code — deduct, grow, withdraw all untaxed for medical
Triple advantage

The Arizona Tax Angle

Phoenix isn't a no-tax state — but its 2.5% flat rate is the lowest flat income tax in the nation, and Arizona doesn't touch the money that matters most in retirement.

  • 2.5% flat income tax — on $90K that's ~$2,000/year vs. $4,500–$6,000 in California brackets. The gap funds a third of a Roth IRA by itself.
  • Social Security benefits are fully exempt from Arizona state tax — a meaningful edge for the retirement years themselves.
  • The savings phase matters more than the spending phase. Eleven of the site's 37 cities have zero state income tax — see the compare table. But low tax + low housing (Phoenix) often beats no tax + high housing (Seattle: $2,146 rent).
  • Property taxes run below national average (~0.6% effective) — relevant when your retirement plan includes a paid-off home.
Monthly Capacity by City — Extremes
San Antonio, TX (best) $1,224/mo
Dallas / Houston, TX $1,206/mo
Phoenix, AZ $1,134/mo
Miami, FL $882/mo
San Francisco, CA (worst) $792/mo
Same $80–100K salary — a $432/month retirement gap by ZIP code. Over 30 years at 7%: $527,000.

What Does $1M Actually Buy in Retirement?

The 4% rule: withdraw 4% of your balance in year one, adjust for inflation, and the portfolio historically survives 30+ years.

$40,000/yr
From $1M at 4%
$3,333/month before Social Security
+$24,000/yr
Avg Social Security
at full retirement age (2026)
$5,333/mo
Combined income
comfortably above Phoenix retiree costs

The city double-dip: a low-cost metro helps twice — you save more per month while working, and each withdrawal dollar stretches further when retired. Phoenix's $1,134/month capacity reaches $1M in ~27 years. The same worker in San Jose needs 31 years for the same milestone, then faces 88% higher rent on arrival.

Improve It

What Improves Your Score the Most?

Ranked by point impact at the $80–100K band in Phoenix.

+18
Capture the full employer match
4.7% avg match = $4,230/year free at $90K. Contributing below the match is leaving salary on the table.
High Impact Low Effort
+14
Automate 1% increases every raise
Auto-escalation from 10% → 15% over 5 raises is invisible to your budget and worth ~$250K by 65.
High Impact Low Effort
+13
Max a Roth IRA ($7,000/yr)
$583/month of tax-free-forever growth. Phoenix's capacity covers this on top of the 401(k) match.
High Impact Medium Effort
+12
Keep housing under 28% of take-home
The single variable that decides retirement capacity. Phoenix at $1,583 rent = 28% exactly; SF = 53%.
High Impact High Effort
+8
Shift high-fee funds to index funds
A 1% expense ratio vs 0.05% costs ~$220K over a 35-year career at this contribution level.
Medium Impact Low Effort

People Like You in Phoenix at $80–100K

Aggregate data for households at this income level in the Phoenix metro area.

62%
Participate in a 401(k)
when their employer offers one
8.9%
Avg deferral rate
vs. the 15% recommendation
$1,134
Achievable monthly
at this income band
27 yrs
To $1M at capacity
at 7% average growth

Explore & Compare All 37 Cities

Retirement capacity at the $80–100K band. The spread is brutal: San Antonio $1,224/mo vs. San Jose $792 — same salary, 5 extra years to $1M.

City Retire ScoreMonthly CapacityYears to $1MState Income Tax1BR Rent
San Antonio, TX 88 $1,22426 yrsNone$1,177
Austin, TX 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,562
Dallas, TX 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,648
Houston, TX 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,323
Jacksonville, FL 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,382
Las Vegas, NV 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,478
Nashville, TN 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,578
Tampa, FL 87 $1,20626 yrsNone$1,696
Orlando, FL 86 $1,18826 yrsNone$1,731
Seattle, WA 86 $1,18826 yrsNone$2,146
Albuquerque, NM 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$1,185
Columbus, OH 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$1,194
Detroit, MI 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$1,122
Kansas City, MO 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$1,197
Pittsburgh, PA 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$1,077
St. Louis, MO 84 $1,15227 yrsYes$995
Phoenix, AZ YOUR CITY 83 $1,13427 yrs2.5% flat$1,583
Atlanta, GA 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,660
Baltimore, MD 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,511
Charlotte, NC 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,538
Chicago, IL 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,581
Indianapolis, IN 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,267
Minneapolis, MN 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,405
Philadelphia, PA 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,520
Portland, OR 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,677
Raleigh, NC 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,596
Salt Lake City, UT 83 $1,13427 yrsYes$1,456
Denver, CO 82 $1,11627 yrsYes$1,754
Sacramento, CA 82 $1,11627 yrsYes$1,832
Miami, FL 69 $88230 yrsNone$1,995
Los Angeles, CA 65 $81031 yrsYes$2,085
Washington, DC 65 $81031 yrsYes$2,015
Boston, MA 64 $79231 yrsYes$2,476
New York, NY 64 $79231 yrsYes$2,655
San Diego, CA 64 $79231 yrsYes$2,459
San Francisco, CA 64 $79231 yrsYes$2,977
San Jose, CA 64 $79231 yrsYes$2,982

Data: city JSONs at 80k–100k band · HUD FY2026 FMR · years to $1M assume 7% avg annual growth, monthly compounding. Nine cities have no state income tax.

Your Life Could Change

Phoenix vs. San Francisco — same $80–100K salary, radically different retirement timelines.

Phoenix, AZ Current
Retire Score 83/100
Monthly Capacity $1,134/mo
Years to $1M 27 yrs
1BR Rent $1,583/mo
State Income Tax 2.5% flat
San Francisco, CA Compare
Retire Score 64/100
Monthly Capacity $792/mo
Years to $1M 31 yrs
1BR Rent $2,977/mo
State Income Tax up to 9.3%
+$342/mo
Extra retirement capacity
4 years
Sooner to the $1M milestone
$527K
Difference by 65 at 7%

Tools & Resources

Calculators and guides to turn monthly capacity into a retirement date.

🔢
Calculator
Compound Growth Calculator
Monthly amount + years + rate → your future balance.
→
🎯
Calculator
Retirement Number Finder
Your target balance from desired retirement income.
→
📋
Checklist
Account Priority Ladder
Match → debt → Roth → 401(k) → HSA, with 2025 limits.
→
📖
Guide
Roth vs. Traditional
The tax-now vs. tax-later decision by income bracket.
→
← Back to American Dream Check

How We Calculate the Retirement Readiness Score

Your score is a composite of 5 weighted factors. Each factor is scored 0–100 based on your income band and city market data, then combined into the final score.

Savings Capacity vs 15% Rule 35%

Achievable monthly contribution after local housing and living costs vs. the 15%-of-gross target.

Housing Burden 25%

Local rent as a share of take-home — the variable that creates or destroys savings capacity.

State Tax Drag 15%

State income tax reduces both take-home and effective compounding. Eleven of 37 cities have none.

Cost-of-Living Trajectory 15%

How far each withdrawal dollar stretches if you also retire in this metro.

Income Band Fit 10%

Whether this band clears the local break-even point where saving becomes possible at all.

Data sources: Fidelity 2025 · IRS Revenue Procedure 2024-61 · HUD FY2026 FMR · SSA 2026

What You Might Have to Trade

Prioritizing retirement savings means saying no to other things now. Here's the honest exchange rate.

🏠 Down payment competes directly Same dollars

The 15% and a 5-year home fund rarely fit together at this band. Most households alternate: match-only while saving the down payment, then max after buying.

✈️ Lifestyle now vs. later -$500–$1,100/mo

The full 15% is real money that doesn't go to travel, dining, or upgrades. The compounding chart is what you're buying instead.

🔒 Liquidity is locked until 59½ 10% penalty early

401(k)/IRA money is hard to reach early. Keep the emergency fund fully outside retirement accounts before maxing.

📈 Market risk is real -20% years happen

Historically recoverable within 2–4 years, and irrelevant on a 25+ year horizon — but emotionally brutal without an emergency buffer.

💼 Job flexibility improves later Golden handcuffs inverted

A funded retirement account is leverage: every $100K saved makes career risks — sabbaticals, startups, pivots — more affordable.

Emotional Impact

Security & Control Very High

Retirement savers report the highest financial-wellbeing scores of any group — independent of income level.

Present-Day Sacrifice Moderate

The 15% pinches hardest in years 1–3, then lifestyle adapts and the automation becomes invisible.

Anxiety About Enough Moderate

56% of Americans feel behind on retirement. The milestones reframe it: a plan with a number beats a vague dread.

Compounding Satisfaction High

Watching the balance cross salary multiples is a genuine, repeating motivation loop — the rare money task that gets easier.

Key takeaway: You can borrow for a house, a car, even college. Nobody will lend you a retirement. It's the one goal where starting imperfectly today beats starting properly next year.

Compound Growth Calculator

Final Balance
You Contributed
Growth Did
🎉 At these settings, compounding contributes more than you do — the money is doing the majority of the work.

Monthly compounding, contributions at period end, no inflation adjustment. Historical S&P 500 real return ≈ 7%.

Retirement Number Finder

The 4% rule: your target balance is 25× the annual income you want it to safely generate.

Target Balance (25× Rule)

Compare against your Compound Growth Calculator projection:

4% rule is a standard retirement-planning heuristic, not a guarantee. Projection uses the same 7% avg return basis as the Compound Growth Calculator.

Full Improvement Plan — Retirement Readiness

1. Find your match — today
Check your plan documents or ask HR: match formula, vesting schedule, true-up policy. Contribute at least the match percentage starting next paycheck. This is a 50–100% instant return.
2. Turn on auto-escalation
Most 401(k) platforms can raise your deferral 1% each year automatically. 10% → 15% over five raises is invisible to your lifestyle and worth ~$250K by 65 at this band.
3. Open the Roth IRA before year-end
$7,000 limit (2025), $583/month. Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard all open one in 10 minutes. Fund it with a broad index fund, not the default money market.
4. Audit your fund fees once
In your 401(k), swap any fund charging over 0.5% for the index equivalent. One hour of clicking is worth ~$220K over a career at this contribution level.
5. Guard the housing ratio
Keep rent under 28% of take-home at every move and renewal. Phoenix sits exactly at the line — every $100/month of rent creep comes directly out of retirement capacity.
6. Never cash out when changing jobs
41% of workers cash out 401(k)s at job changes — the single most expensive retirement mistake. Roll to the new plan or an IRA; the taxes and penalty consume ~30% instantly.

Full Insights — Retirement Data

2025 Contribution Limits (IRS)

401(k)/403(b) employee deferral: $23,500 (+$7,500 catch-up at 50+, +$11,250 at 60–63). IRA (Traditional or Roth): $7,000 (+$1,000 at 50+). Roth IRA income phase-out starts at $150K single / $236K married (2025). HSA: $4,300 single / $8,550 family — the only triple-tax-advantaged account.

The Benchmarks (Fidelity 2025)

Recommended savings rate: 15% of gross including employer match. Average employer match: 4.7% of salary. Age milestones: 1× salary by 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60, 10× by 67. Median actual balance for ages 45–54: ~$115K — the gap between guidance and reality is the point of this page.

The Phoenix Position

At the $80–100K band, Phoenix's estimated retirement capacity is $1,134/month — covering the full 15% rule with margin. Arizona's 2.5% flat income tax is the lowest flat rate in the nation, Social Security is state-tax-exempt, and effective property tax runs ~0.6%. The trade: summer utilities (A/C season adds $150–$250/month June–September) and rapidly rising rents (+31% since 2020).

Full Simulation — Phoenix vs. San Francisco

Same $80–100K salary, same 15% intent, same 7% market. The only variable is the city.

Metric Phoenix San Francisco Phoenix Edge
Monthly capacity $1,134 $792 +$342/mo
Annual contributions $13,608 $9,504 +$4,104
Balance after 10 yrs $196K $137K +$59K
Balance after 20 yrs $591K $413K +$178K
Years to $1M 27 31 4 years
Balance at 65 (start 30) $2.04M $1.42M +$620K
The honest caveat: SF salaries at the same job title often run 20–35% higher, which can close the gap. This simulation isolates what happens when the salary band is genuinely the same — the case for most remote and non-tech workers.

All Recommendations

🚀 Start at ANY percentage today — 3% now beats 15% "someday." Escalate later.
🚀 Capture the full employer match before every other goal except high-interest debt.
🚀 Pick target-date or broad index funds — decision fatigue is why default options exist.
🚀 Automate on payday. Money you never see is money you never miss.
📈 Roth vs Traditional: Roth wins if you expect higher taxes later — usually true early-career.
📈 Add the HSA if eligible: triple tax advantage beats even the 401(k) per dollar.
📈 Direct every raise 50/50: half to lifestyle, half to the deferral rate.
📈 Audit expense ratios annually — anything over 0.5% has an index-fund replacement.
🛡️ Never cash out at a job change — roll over. The ~30% haircut is unrecoverable.
🛡️ Keep the emergency fund OUTSIDE retirement accounts so a crisis never forces early withdrawal.
🛡️ Ignore the balance in down markets: missing the 10 best days halves 20-year returns.
🛡️ Update beneficiaries after every major life event — the form outranks your will.

Your Retirement Plan

A 5-step roadmap from wherever you are today to a funded retirement — built on Phoenix numbers.

1
Capture the match This paycheck
Set your 401(k) deferral to at least the match threshold (typically 4–6%). Free $4,230/year at $90K starts immediately.
2
Kill high-interest debt Months 1–12
Anything over ~7% APR outgrows the market. Pay it down while contributing match-only.
3
Open + automate the Roth IRA This quarter
$583/month to the $7,000 limit. Phoenix's $1,134 capacity covers match + Roth with room to spare.
4
Escalate to the full 15% Every raise
Auto-escalation 1%/year until 401(k) + Roth + match totals 15% of gross. At $90K: $1,125/month.
5
Check milestones, not markets Once a year
Compare balance to the age milestones each birthday. Rebalance, bump the rate, ignore the noise. That's the whole maintenance plan.

All Resources — Retirement Savings

🔢
Calculator
Compound Growth Calculator
Contribution + years + rate → future balance, with growth vs. contributions split.
🎯
Calculator
Retirement Number Finder
Work backward from desired income via the 4% rule.
📋
Checklist
Account Priority Ladder
Match → debt → Roth → 401(k) → HSA with 2025 limits.
📖
Guide
Roth vs. Traditional
Tax-now vs. tax-later by bracket and career stage.
🔄
Guide
401(k) Rollover Guide
Job change without the 30% cash-out mistake.
💸
Tool
Fund Fee Analyzer
What your expense ratios cost over a full career.
🏜️
Guide
Retiring in Arizona
2.5% flat tax, exempt Social Security, property tax math.
📊
Tool
Milestone Tracker
Your balance vs. the Fidelity age multiples, updated yearly.

Talk to an Expert — Free 30 Minutes

Get a free 30-minute session with a local, vetted financial professional to talk through retirement account strategy, contribution planning, and tax optimization. No sales pitch, no obligation — just clear answers for your situation.

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Save & Share Your Report

Your report includes: Retirement Readiness Score, city & income band, monthly capacity estimate, years-to-$1M projection, account priority ladder, and milestone benchmarks from Fidelity 2025 and IRS 2025 limits.
Updated with June 2026 data

Income Reality Check is an educational tool, not financial advice. Your situation has more dimensions than any tool can capture.